Tropical Weather July 6, 2009

The tropical Atlantic is quiet this morning with no areas of concern. The only area to watch this week is off of the US Southeast coast. A frontal boundary will be stalled in this area this week with areas of low pressure rippling along the front throughout the week. It appears that in all likelihood that these low pressure systems will be non-tropical in nature and will be swept out into the open Atlantic fairly quickly. However, this area should be watched to see if any of these low pressure systems may try to acquire tropical characteristics as it tracks northeast into the open Atlantic.

A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean is tracking west and is producing showers and thunderstorms over Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and will begin affecting Jamaica later today. Environmental conditions are unfavorable for development and I’m not expecting much from this tropical wave in terms of tropical cyclone development.

Long Range Possibilities:

Most of the model guidance to some degree are forecasting that a tropical wave will emerge off of the coast of Africa this coming weekend into early next week, but development into a tropical cyclone is highly uncertain. The long range GFS and to some extent the Canadian model forecasts that this wave will develop into a tropical cyclone by the middle of next week; in fact, the GFS model develops this system into a strong tropical storm, while the European and NOGAPS models do nothing with this tropical wave.

Here is my thinking: Based on the GFS model’s past forecasts this season so far, I think this is a “ghost” storm and I will believe it when I see it. The eastern Atlantic is pretty much closed down for business right now due to very dry air capping anything that comes off of Africa. If these GFS model runs start showing consistency and properly moves it down in time-increments or if some of the other reliable models start showing the same thing, then I will sit up and start paying attention. Enviornmental conditions are not favorable right now, however, development chances should start increasing towards the end of July when we get the MJO upward motion pulse back into the Atlantic.

Finally, if you are bored today, either at home or at work, and like to look at model guidance runs; take a look at the long range CFS model. This model goes out to 9 months from now at 12 hour increments. For instance, if you want to look at a model map 600 hours from now (25 days from now), you will need to divide that 600 hours by 12 and you get 50. Enter that 50 number into the query box of the following WEB PAGE and click submit and it will bring up a model map. It is a pretty cool webpage, however, it’s forecast maps should obviously be taken with a pound of salt and should be used more as “entertainment” than anything. Do not make specific plans based on just this model, especially that far out.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 6 am EDT Wednesday morning. No tropical weather discussions will be issued on Tuesday.

Infrared Satellite Imagery:

Current Wind Shear Analysis:

New Interactive Tracking Map at www.HurricaneFury.COm

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Long Range Outlook For Mar 9 - 13

The Long Range Temperature outlook for Mar 9 - 13, shows a slight above AVG temperature's for the Pine Belt. The Southeast US will be much above normal. The Rockies and most of the Northwest will be much Below Normal for Mar 9 - 13. Temperature's in the Pine Belt should be in the low 70's to upper 70's for High's and upper 40's to mid 50's for overnight lows.



The Long Range Precipitation Outlook for Mar 9 - 13, shows above normal rainfall for most of Mississippi. Look's like Southern FLA and Southwest Texas will be Below normal in the precipitation department.


So the Long Range Outlook for the Pine Belt for Mar 9 - 13, It will be slight warmer then normal and wetter then normal.

-Louis
www.hurricanecity.net

Great Books on Hurricane Katrina & Rita

http://www.squidoo.com/hurricanecity

http://forums.accuweather.com/ Yes, We now have a Blog on WWW.Accuweather.Com

First came the name Katrina. It sounded harmless enough,
and undoubtedly spawned countless remarks about how
harmless the storm was at the time. Then came the
predictions of demise. They said that the storm barely had enough
strength to survive. It did survive, and Katrina grew from a tiny
tropical storm to a modest hurricane. Then came the forecasts.
The experts changed their mind, believing she might go as high as
Category 3 or even 4, and Katrina was busy proving them wrong again,
growing to a Category 5 monster the likes of which are seen at most,
a few times per century. Then came the harbingers, the sensationalists,
prophesying doom on a Biblical scale for the city of New Orleans. But
Hurricane Katrina blew ashore some 50-100 miles to the East of where
she was predicted to hit. She arrived with significantly reduced power, a
and some felt this meant she was less of a concern, as if 150mph winds
were somehow not a big deal because they were 175mph just 12 hours
prior to landfall.

Katrina ravaged the coast, pushing her way onshore, yet somehow
retaining her composure until much later, like a stubborn prize fighter
refusing to go down. She blasted Mississippi and Alabama, states who
seemed completely surprised by the fact that a hurricane was bearing
down on them.

Then came pictures from the towns to the east of New Orleans. They
caused concern for any with family or friends down south with sobering
images of rubble stretching for miles on end. Yet, after 72 hours of heading
for the coast, she still took Alabama and Mississippi by surprise. It needs
to be said again. A catastrophic hurricane that had been watched, forecasted,
and bandied about on the news for more than a week stunned tens to
hundreds of thousands of people when it made landfall. The media and the
National Weather Service decided that only New Orleans was worthy of its
haughty attention, and they lavished it upon the city, leaving towns to the
east where the most powerful part of the hurricane smashed ashore out of
its spotlight. Those who are unfamiliar with hurricanes would have thought
that it was only going to hit New Orleans. Tens of thousands in Mississippi
and Alabama who were given voluntary evacuation options remained in
their homes. Eventually the levee that held New Orleans safe ruptured, some
24 hours after Katrina's departure, and long after the damage had been done
to dozens of other towns and millions of homes.

Then came the results. Cities like Gulf Port and Biloxi have been literally scoured
from the face of the Earth, and the impoverished residents who were aware of
Katrina either incapable of leaving the area, or couldn't afford to evacuate.
The media and weather services, who could have warned residents of Mississippi
and Alabama about the impending danger of Katrina, chose to be a ratings suck hole.
Our government, which had ample time to commute the residents powerless
to get out of Katrina's way must now find and remove their bodies instead.

And the bodies continue floating in the flooded streets even as
the government reassures the nation that everything is A-OK
and under control.

Then came the chaos and gunshots from angry citizens in the city.
The music of hell.

The result is that hurricane Katrina will probably be the costliest and
deadliest disaster ever to strike the United States. Did it really have
to be this way? Did so many people have to be caught by surprise?
Did so many have to die? Now comes the silence.

Wintry Mix for North MS and Maybe a Flurry for Central and South Mississippi Late Tonight!!!

Temp's over the state will be falling today into the 30's in central and south Mississippi and the 20's over the north part of the state. Light rain may briefly mix with light sleet before changing over to light snow late tonight and early Sunday morning. Snowfall accumulation will total less than one inch and mainly on grassy surfaces over Central Mississippi. However North Mississippi may see 1 to 3 inches of Snow before it's all over. On the other hand South Mississippi will see NO accumulation's of snow tonight.

The potent upper level low that will bring the chance of wintry mix will shift east into Alabama Sunday morning and ending the snow from the northwest. Sunday is expected to be very windy with Northwest winds of 15 to 20 MPH with guests to 30 MPH combined with Temperatures in the 30s will make it feel brisk tonight into Sunday morning.

Here is a Re-Cap of the Weather Forecast for the Pine Belt Today and Tonight....


Today: Mostly cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 54 by 5pm. Northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of snow after midnight, mostly far north of the Pine Belt. Only a slight chance of a flurry for the Pine Belt south to the Gulf Coast after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Northwest wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 52. North northwest wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Thanks for reading the HurricaneCity Weather Blog and checkout our Twitter link at www.twitter.com/hurricanecity . Have a wonderful Weekend...

-Louis

Slight Chance of Severe Weather For Mississippi Today & Tonight

Daytime heating should also enhance thunderstorm potential as temperatures warm into the lower 70's today. Given the forecast weak low level shear it appears the greatest risk with any supercells that develop should be large hail and damaging winds. Although the tornado threat may be somewhat enhanced were low level shear will be maximized along the warm front for any east to west moving supercells. While greatest concentration of thunderstorms will occur along and north of a warm front during the first half of the period but convection should develop southwest along a surging cold front as it moves across Louisana into western late in the period.

Fat Tuesday Weather for New Orleans and the Gulf Coast Looks Great!!!

Fat Tuesday in New Orleans and along the Mississippi Gulf should be Sunny with High's in the Upper 60's. Partly Cloudy sky's and Humid Wednesday and Thursday with High's in the Mid to Upper 70's with overnight Low's in the low to mid 50's.

The next shot of Shower will be on Friday and Saturday with High's in the mid 70's and a 40% Chance of a light Shower. North Mississippi has a slight chance of a few Strong Thunderstorm's on Friday.

Have a Safe and Happy Fat Tuesday and Ash Wednesday!!!

-Louis
http://www.HurricaneCity.Net

Sunny Skies Today and A Cold Night Ahead

This weather Blog will be short and sweet. A cold front passed through the Pine Belt last evening and high pressure will be the weather maker today. Sunny skies today with high in the upper 50s and Clear and Cold tonight with a low around 30F. A return of Sunny skies on Friday with Highs in the low 60s and a low Friday night in the low 30s.

A sneak preview for the weekend shows Highs in the upper 60s and lows in the low 40s with a chance of shower late Saturday. Rainfall amounts of a half inch is possible with the next system but no severe weather is expected.

For the latest weather updates join us at www.twitter.com/hurricanecity or www.hurricanecity.net .


-Louis

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

HIGH RES RADAR AS OF 8:38 PM CDT

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 27
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 27 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MSC023-031-035-039-041-061-065-067-069-073-075-077-091-101-111-
123-127-129-131-153-190700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0027.090219T0145Z-090219T0700Z/

MS
.    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CLARKE               COVINGTON           FORREST
GEORGE               GREENE              JASPER
JEFFERSON DAVIS      JONES               KEMPER
LAMAR                LAUDERDALE          LAWRENCE
MARION               NEWTON              PERRY
SCOTT                SIMPSON             SMITH
STONE                WAYNE
$$


ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

South Miss Under High Risk for Strong to Severe Storms Wednesday

Severe Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday morning until noon for counties south of I-20 in Mississippi। A Strong low pressure system is expected to move across the Central Plains and Mid Mississippi Valley bringing Thunderstorms to the outlook area। Instability and Moisture will increase during the day ahead of an approaching cold front and strong wind shear will be
supportive of supercell thunderstorms which may contain large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado। Please monitor later forecasts for updates
regarding this potential severe weather for South Mississippi



We will have update's at http://twitter.com/hurricanecity and http://www.hurricanecity.net .

-Louis

A significant severe weather outbreak north & west of the Pine Belt!!

Supercells with strong tornadoes is expected this afternoon into tonight for eastern OK, northeast TX, western/central AR and northwest LA. This morning water vapor shows a vigorous and digging shortwave trough over eastern AZ. This feature will rotate into TX this evening... while 110+ KT mid level jet noses into the Big Bend region. Parameters remain very favorable for numerous severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern plains this afternoon and tonight with a risk of widespread damaging winds, strong tornadoes and large hail.

This afternoon the primary upper forcing will arrive along the dryline over northwest texas. This will likely result in the rapid development of an intese squall line. This activity is expected to track eastward across north central and central texas during this evening with a risk of widspread damaging winds. Low and deep layer vertical shear profiles will be very favorable for embedded mesocyclones and the rist of Tornadoes. Forecast soundings also suggst only a weak cap ahead of the squall line posing the risk of more discrete Tornadic supercells during the evening. Strong Tornadoes will be possible over this region as well...

For more information go to our website at http://www.hurricanecity.net/ .

-Louis Smith

Severe Storm Possible for Mississippi this coming Wednesday!!!

The Severe Storms Forecast Center continues to indicate that a regional severe weather threat developing late Tuesday/Tuesday night will carry over into at least early Wednesday. A High likelihood for a pre-frontal tongue of low-level moisture characterized by Mid 50s surface dew points to extend as far north as the Mississippi and Ohio RIver confluence at 12z Wednesday and this may contribute to enough instability to maintain a squall line east of the Mississippi River perhaps as far as the western slopes of the Appalachians ahead of a vigorous short wave trough accelerating through the Ohio Valley during the day. Strongly forced convection will be embedded within a very strong mean environmental flow treater than 50 knots capable of supporting considerable damaging wind gusts even if thermodynamic profiles become decreasingly favorable for lightning activity with eastward progression.

South of the Tennessee Valley storm development ahead of the front may become more discrete in the presence of weaker mid-level forcing/greater inhibition. The pre-frontal deep layer shear is expected to remain favorable for supercells as far south as the central/eastern Gulf Coast.

Upstream waves progressing through the prominent belt of westerlies across the southern tier of the U.S. may support additional risks for severe storm late this coming week into next weekend. At this time the predictability of these systems is too low to confidently delineate additional areas due to the increasingly large spread among model data at this extended range.

We will be broadcasting the latest on the weather system at http://www.hurricanecity.net through the streaming TV network.

-Louis

Twitter Blog: Inauguration Day on Twitter

www.hurricanecity.net

Severe Storm Possible for Mississippi this coming Wednesday!!!

The Severe Storms Forecast Center continues to indicate that a regional severe weather threat developing late Tuesday/Tuesday night will carry over into at least early Wednesday. A High likelihood for a pre-frontal tongue of low-level moisture characterized by Mid 50s surface dew points to extend as far north as the Mississippi and Ohio RIver confluence at 12z Wednesday and this may contribute to enough instability to maintain a squall line east of the Mississippi River perhaps as far as the western slopes of the Appalachians ahead of a vigorous short wave trough accelerating through the Ohio Valley during the day. Strongly forced convection will be embedded within a very strong mean environmental flow treater than 50 knots capable of supporting considerable damaging wind gusts even if thermodynamic profiles become decreasingly favorable for lightning activity with eastward progression.

South of the Tennessee Valley storm development ahead of the front may become more discrete in the presence of weaker mid-level forcing/greater inhibition. The pre-frontal deep layer shear is expected to remain favorable for supercells as far south as the central/eastern Gulf Coast.

Upstream waves progressing through the prominent belt of westerlies across the southern tier of the U.S. may support additional risks for severe storm late this coming week into next weekend. At this time the predictability of these systems is too low to confidently delineate additional areas due to the increasingly large spread among model data at this extended range.

We will be broadcasting the latest on the weather system at http://www.hurricanecity.net through the streaming TV network.

-Louis

Warmer Temps this Weekend.... Severe to Strong Storms Next Week

After a very cold week warmer weather will return to the Pine Belt this weekend. Afternoon temps will rebound to the low 70's for Sat and mid 70's on Sunday. Overnight lows each day will be in the low to mid 40's. A storm system now over the western US will move into Central and South Mississippi Wed and Wed night and will bring a good chance of Strong to Severe Weather. This is a good time to check your Weather Alarm Radios or go out and buy a new you, because we are getting into the severe weather season. Also http://www.hurricanecity.net now has live TV will severe weather moves into South Mississippi.

-Louis

Cold Start this morning.... Warmer Weather this weekend... Severe Storms Next Week...

Morning lows in Mississippi ranged from the Mid teens in north Mississippi to the low 20's in the Pine Belt to the upper 20's on the Gulf Coast. Sunny skies and light winds today with Temps in the mid to upper 40's in the north Mississippi, low to mid 50's in central and Southeast Mississippi and upper 50's along the Gulf Coast. As the high moves to the east Mississippi will see a return flow with warmer temps and a chance of showers for the weekend. Their will be a chance of Severe to Strong Storm for parts of central and southeast Mississippi Wed afternoon through Wed night. For more information on the Pine Belt Weather go to www.hurricanecity.net .

-Louis

Cold Air Returns to the Pine Belt

A large area of Pressure will move over Mississippi and temp's will dip into the teens in north and central Mississippi and lower 20's in the pine belt and mid 20's on the Gulf Coast. Once the High move to the east a return flow will bring shower's and a little warmer weather for the weekend. Folk's in Mississippi should remember to bring in their pet's and cover or bring in plants. For more information on the Pine Belt weather go to www.HurricaneCity.net .