Supercells with strong tornadoes is expected this afternoon into tonight for eastern OK, northeast TX, western/central AR and northwest LA. This morning water vapor shows a vigorous and digging shortwave trough over eastern AZ. This feature will rotate into TX this evening... while 110+ KT mid level jet noses into the Big Bend region. Parameters remain very favorable for numerous severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern plains this afternoon and tonight with a risk of widespread damaging winds, strong tornadoes and large hail.
This afternoon the primary upper forcing will arrive along the dryline over northwest texas. This will likely result in the rapid development of an intese squall line. This activity is expected to track eastward across north central and central texas during this evening with a risk of widspread damaging winds. Low and deep layer vertical shear profiles will be very favorable for embedded mesocyclones and the rist of Tornadoes. Forecast soundings also suggst only a weak cap ahead of the squall line posing the risk of more discrete Tornadic supercells during the evening. Strong Tornadoes will be possible over this region as well...
For more information go to our website at http://www.hurricanecity.net/ .
-Louis Smith
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